Doubts surrounding Boko Haram deal

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Abuja - Nigeria on Friday claimed to have
reached a deal with Boko Haram militants on a
ceasefire and the release of more than 200
kidnapped schoolgirls but doubts immediately
surrounded the purported breakthrough.
Chief of Defence Staff Air Marshal Alex Badeh
told senior military officials from Nigeria and
Cameroon meeting in Abuja that a "ceasefire
agreement" had been concluded between the
government and the insurgents.
"I have accordingly directed the service chiefs
to ensure immediate compliance with this
development," he added.
Badeh's announcement came after a senior aide
to President Goodluck Jonathan, Hassan Tukur,
told AFP that an agreement to end hostilities
had been reached following talks, as well as for
the release of 219 girls held captive since April.
But a precedent of previous claims from the
government and military about an end to the
deadly five-year conflict and the fate of the
missing teenagers left many observers urging
caution.
Jonathan is also expected to declare his bid for
re-election in the coming weeks, with positive
news about the hostages and the violence likely
to give him a political boost.
Multiple analysts cast doubt over the credibility
of a man called Danladi Ahmadu, whom Tukur
claimed represented Boko Haram at the two
meetings in neighbouring Chad.
"I have never heard of such a man (Ahmadu)
and if Boko Haram wanted to declare a
ceasefire it would come from the group's leader
Abubakar Shekau," said Shehu Sani, a Boko
Haram expert who has negotiated with the
group before on behalf of the government.
Ralph Bello-Fadile an advisor to Nigeria's
National Security Advisor (NSA), told a
conference on Monday that the NSA has been
inundated with fraudsters claiming to represent
Shekau.
"Government wants to negotiate," he told a
Chatham House event in Abuja, "but so far
nobody has come forward who speaks for
Shekau."
Chad talks
Tukur said he represented the government at
two meetings with the Islamists in Chad, which
were mediated by the country's President Idriss
Deby.
"Boko Haram issued the ceasefire as a result of
the discussions we have been having with
them," said Tukur, adding that Ahmadu made
the announcement on Thursday evening.
"They have agreed to release the Chibok girls,"
he continued, referring to the girls seized in
northeast Nigeria on 14 April, causing global
outrage.
Ndjamena refused to comment but security
sources in the country said Chad, which
Jonathan visited for talks with Deby early last
month, had been involved in the discussions.
The source also said a ceasefire agreement
was reached as well as the release of 27
hostages, 10 of them Chinese nationals, who
were kidnapped in northern Cameroon earlier
this year.
The release of the hostages last weekend was
"a first strong signal" from Boko Haram to prove
their good faith, the source added but did not
mention the schoolgirls.
Ahmadu gave an interview broadcast on Friday
on the Hausa language service of Voice of
America radio in which he claimed to be the
group's "chief security officer" and in charge of
publicity.
He made no mention of an end to hostilities and
was vague on details of the apparent talks, even
claiming not to have met Shekau.
He also referred to the jihadi group as Boko
Haram, a name that means 'Western education
is forbidden' which was imposed on the Islamist
radicals by outsiders. The insurgents
themselves never use the term.
Islamic state
The group's known leaders have exclusively
used the name Jama'atu Ahlis Sunna
Lidda'awati wal-Jihad, which means "People
Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's
Teachings and Jihad".
He made no reference to the Chibok girls and
did not list the creation of an Islamic state in
Nigeria's mainly Muslim north - the core,
unwavering Boko Haram demand since the
uprising began.
Shekau has in a series of video messages since
2012 ruled out talks with the government and
said northern Nigeria will never know peace
until shari'ah (Islamic law) is strictly enforced.
Envoys from Nigeria's presidency have made
similar ceasefire claims in the past, notably
Jonathan's Minister for Special Duties Taminu
Turaki, who led a so-called amnesty commission
in 2013 that was tasked with brokering peace.
Turaki on several occasions maintained that he
was negotiating with legitimate Boko Haram
commanders, including Shekau's immediate
deputies, and that a ceasefire was at hand.
But nothing materialised from Turaki's
protracted negotiations. Shekau said that he
never sent delegates to any talks and attacks
continued at a relentless pace.